Final
Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium · 76° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Portland State–SDSU) | 7–49 | – | 20–53 |
| Spread | SDSU −42.1 | SDSU −38.5 | SDSU −33 |
| Total | 55.4 | 61.5 | 73 |
| San Diego State win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SDSU −38.5 Lost★ Under 61.5 Lost
Spread: 3.6 pts better than Vegas for San Diego State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 6.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SDSU by 42.10%
Portland State by 14+
0%
Portland State by 1–13
4%
San Diego State by 1–13
96%
San Diego State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Portland State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.284 | Offense EPA / play | −0.062 #93 |
| +0.331 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.012 #42 |
| −10.7% | Offense success rate | −2.4% #89 |
| +13.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.9% #49 |
| −0.266 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.020 #66 |
| −0.279 | Passing EPA / play | −0.099 #113 |
| +0.316 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.065 #84 |
| +0.322 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.023 #55 |
| −17.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #86 |
| +21.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.8 #44 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.9% #129 |
| +10.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #50 |
| −1.99 | Points per drive | −0.17 #75 |
| +3.36 | Points per drive allowed | +0.41 #56 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.00 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #50 |
| +0.75 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #101 |
| +10.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #38 |
| −5.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.6% #113 |
| +0.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #61 |
| −5.9% | Havoc created | −1.4% #90 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.048 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.026 #117 |
| −0.035 | Passing explosiveness | +0.050 #20 |
| −0.64 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #93 |
| −0.040 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.046 #39 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 60% #7 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Portland State | Season to date | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 10.0 / 68.5 | Points for / against | 24.6 / 28.8 |
| -58.5 | Avg margin | -4.2 |
| -10.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.3 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.4 |
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