Final
Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium · 90° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wyoming–Colorado State) | 22–27 | – | 13–35 |
| Spread | Colorado State −4.7 | Colorado State −2.5 | Colorado State −22 |
| Total | 48.3 | 45.5 | 48 |
| Colorado State win chance | 62% | – | – |
Line moved from Colorado State −4 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colorado State −2.5 Won★ Over 45.5 Won
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Colorado State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Colorado State by 4.712%
Wyoming by 14+
26%
Wyoming by 1–13
34%
Colorado State by 1–13
28%
Colorado State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wyoming | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.133 #129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.072 #98 |
| +0.078 #83 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.106 #100 |
| −5.5% #123 | Offense success rate | −3.1% #96 |
| +3.0% #84 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #101 |
| −0.112 #127 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.080 #103 |
| −0.130 #126 | Passing EPA / play | −0.067 #95 |
| +0.082 #99 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.070 #88 |
| +0.087 #87 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.131 #115 |
| −9.5 #134 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #100 |
| +2.3 #72 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.5 #104 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.6% #114 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.2% #95 |
| +2.6% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.0% #110 |
| −1.23 #136 | Points per drive | −0.58 #95 |
| +0.69 #73 | Points per drive allowed | +0.99 #93 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 #125 | Line yards per rush | −0.27 #101 |
| +0.24 #99 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.27 #108 |
| +3.7% #129 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.5% #103 |
| −2.8% #116 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.2% #107 |
| +2.2% #120 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.2% #124 |
| −2.9% #123 | Havoc created | −1.1% #85 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.037 #132 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.007 #62 |
| −0.029 #119 | Passing explosiveness | −0.011 #96 |
| −0.30 #123 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #110 |
| −0.012 #97 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.014 #93 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #71 | Run rate | 50% #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wyoming | Season to date | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 14.2 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 38.6 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Wyoming: last games
No games yet.
Colorado State: last games
No games yet.