Final
Sat, Sep 26, 1:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium · 62° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCLA–Maryland) | 26–28 | – | 54–3 |
| Spread | Maryland −2.0 | UCLA −2.5 | UCLA −51 |
| Total | 54.7 | 55.5 | 57 |
| Maryland win chance | 55% | – | – |
Line moved from UCLA −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Maryland +2.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Maryland (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Maryland by 2.016%
UCLA by 14+
29%
UCLA by 1–13
32%
Maryland by 1–13
23%
Maryland by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UCLA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.093 #25 | Offense EPA / play | +0.067 #32 |
| +0.001 #47 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.019 #57 |
| +4.1% #24 | Offense success rate | +1.8% #42 |
| −0.0% #46 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.2% #58 |
| +0.240 #1 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.014 #67 |
| −0.115 #104 | Passing EPA / play | +0.040 #43 |
| +0.004 #53 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.079 #21 |
| −0.053 #37 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.089 #88 |
| +5.5 #24 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.5 #44 |
| +1.8 #70 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #41 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.3% #50 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.4% #39 |
| −2.9% #26 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.0% #125 |
| −0.07 #66 | Points per drive | +0.35 #40 |
| +0.22 #42 | Points per drive allowed | +0.13 #38 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.57 #2 | Line yards per rush | +0.06 #40 |
| −0.07 #42 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.33 #15 |
| −2.8% #18 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #67 |
| +0.3% #53 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.0% #23 |
| −1.2% #45 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #31 |
| −0.8% #74 | Havoc created | −1.6% #92 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.077 #29 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.062 #37 |
| +0.006 #75 | Passing explosiveness | −0.068 #97 |
| +0.67 #8 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.29 #24 |
| +0.138 #126 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.023 #90 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #24 | Run rate | 40% #137 |
| −8.1 #45 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.5 #109 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UCLA | Season to date | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 44.8 / 18.8 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 30.2 |
| +26.0 | Avg margin | +0.2 |
| +18.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
UCLA: last 3 games
| W52-38 | |
| W28-10 | |
| W45-24 |
Maryland: last 3 games
| L26-35 | |
| W38-14 | |
| W62-0 |
