Final
Fri, Sep 18, 10:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium · 61° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Portland State–Oregon) | 6–60 | – | 0–84 |
| Spread | Oregon −54.1 | Oregon −58.5 | Oregon −84 |
| Total | 66.6 | 71.5 | 84 |
| Oregon win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon −57.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Portland State +58.5 Lost★ Under 71.5 Lost
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Portland State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 4.9 pts below Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 54.10%
Portland State by 14+
0%
Portland State by 1–13
1%
Oregon by 1–13
99%
Oregon by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Portland State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.228 | Offense EPA / play | +0.073 #28 |
| +0.376 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.077 #15 |
| −7.8% | Offense success rate | +3.1% #28 |
| +15.1% | Defense success rate allowed | −2.3% #20 |
| −0.234 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.083 #25 |
| −0.195 | Passing EPA / play | −0.008 #63 |
| +0.359 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.014 #52 |
| +0.438 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.175 #8 |
| −15.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.6 #14 |
| +23.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #48 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.9% #26 |
| +15.6% | Passing-down success allowed | −6.4% #7 |
| −2.36 | Points per drive | +0.95 #24 |
| +3.22 | Points per drive allowed | −0.37 #14 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.92 | Line yards per rush | +0.35 #10 |
| +0.96 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #41 |
| +12.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.3% #2 |
| −8.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.6% #95 |
| +4.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #22 |
| −3.7% | Havoc created | +1.2% #40 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.093 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.036 #50 |
| −0.186 | Passing explosiveness | +0.151 #20 |
| −0.54 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.07 #58 |
| +0.015 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.070 #46 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% | Run rate | 51% #83 |
| −5.9 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.3 #18 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Portland State | Season to date | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 10.0 / 68.5 | Points for / against | 47.5 / 23.2 |
| -58.5 | Avg margin | +24.2 |
| -10.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.5 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
Portland State: last 1 games
| L20-53 |
Oregon: last 2 games
| L31-39 | |
| W34-27 |
