Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM ET
Rose Bowl · 82° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SDSU–UCLA) | 21–36 | – | 10–28 |
| Spread | UCLA −15.1 | UCLA −13.5 | UCLA −18 |
| Total | 57.8 | 53.5 | 38 |
| UCLA win chance | 82% | – | – |
Line moved from UCLA −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UCLA −13.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for UCLA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCLA by 15.14%
San Diego State by 14+
14%
San Diego State by 1–13
30%
UCLA by 1–13
53%
UCLA by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SDSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.061 #94 | Offense EPA / play | +0.079 #28 |
| +0.091 #90 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.032 #29 |
| −5.2% #121 | Offense success rate | +3.7% #25 |
| +5.0% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.7% #36 |
| −0.016 #66 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.186 #3 |
| −0.039 #80 | Passing EPA / play | −0.037 #78 |
| +0.081 #94 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.026 #35 |
| +0.117 #97 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.044 #31 |
| −1.1 #61 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.2 #29 |
| +3.6 #80 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.0 #52 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.1% #42 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.5% #93 |
| +2.7% #82 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.2% #66 |
| +0.06 #49 | Points per drive | +0.05 #50 |
| +0.95 #93 | Points per drive allowed | −0.05 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.26 #99 | Line yards per rush | +0.47 #2 |
| +0.71 #138 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #36 |
| +2.4% #96 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.2% #10 |
| −10.2% #138 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.8% #41 |
| +0.4% #84 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #40 |
| −4.1% #128 | Havoc created | −0.0% #61 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.128 #14 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.084 #25 |
| +0.120 #21 | Passing explosiveness | −0.036 #87 |
| −0.09 #54 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.72 #5 |
| −0.098 #42 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.111 #122 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 61% #8 | Run rate | 52% #74 |
| −34.9 #114 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.8 #69 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SDSU | Season to date | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 24.6 / 28.8 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 18.8 |
| -4.2 | Avg margin | +26.0 |
| -7.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +18.0 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
San Diego State: last 1 games
| W53-20 |
UCLA: last 1 games
| W45-24 |
