Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field · 81° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Penn State–Temple) | 35–18 | – | 27–9 |
| Spread | Penn State −16.3 | Penn State −24.5 | Penn State −18 |
| Total | 53.0 | 49.5 | 36 |
| Temple win chance | 15% | – | – |
Line moved from Penn State −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Temple +24.5 Won★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 8.2 pts better than Vegas for Temple (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Penn State by 16.356%
Penn State by 14+
29%
Penn State by 1–13
12%
Temple by 1–13
3%
Temple by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Penn State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.129 #12 | Offense EPA / play | −0.028 #75 |
| −0.045 #28 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.111 #112 |
| +4.4% #22 | Offense success rate | −2.4% #98 |
| −2.7% #28 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.1% #114 |
| +0.028 #68 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.002 #87 |
| +0.228 #6 | Passing EPA / play | −0.025 #67 |
| −0.081 #20 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.136 #126 |
| −0.010 #49 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.081 #85 |
| +4.3 #27 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.2 #71 |
| −8.0 #12 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.8 #94 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.2% #18 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.8% #98 |
| −2.1% #36 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.7% #106 |
| +0.95 #24 | Points per drive | −0.06 #54 |
| −0.80 #15 | Points per drive allowed | +0.66 #108 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.23 #45 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #114 |
| −0.48 #7 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.03 #75 |
| −4.5% #29 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #95 |
| +5.3% #8 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.8% #37 |
| −3.0% #28 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #100 |
| +1.8% #19 | Havoc created | +0.3% #53 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.112 #122 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.092 #25 |
| +0.254 #19 | Passing explosiveness | +0.091 #76 |
| −0.31 #99 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.01 #39 |
| −0.051 #48 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.103 #107 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #69 | Run rate | 61% #20 |
| −14.0 #79 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.2 #93 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Penn State | Season to date | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-0-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 32.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 25.8 / 24.8 |
| +16.0 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| -4.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.8 |
| 53.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Penn State: last 1 games
| W45-0 |
Temple: last 1 games
| W38-14 |
