Final
Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 69° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WSU–Washington) | 16–34 | – | 10–24 |
| Spread | Washington −18.6 | Washington −23.5 | Washington −14 |
| Total | 49.7 | 51.5 | 34 |
| Washington win chance | 88% | – | – |
Line moved from Washington −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WSU +23.5 Won★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for Washington State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Washington by 18.62%
Washington State by 14+
10%
Washington State by 1–13
27%
Washington by 1–13
61%
Washington by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.061 #91 | Offense EPA / play | +0.094 #16 |
| +0.051 #69 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.042 #23 |
| −1.7% #75 | Offense success rate | +4.9% #14 |
| +2.8% #80 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.5% #24 |
| −0.081 #104 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.077 #18 |
| −0.076 #97 | Passing EPA / play | +0.081 #24 |
| +0.055 #72 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.044 #20 |
| +0.075 #78 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.027 #29 |
| −4.2 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.5 #16 |
| +1.5 #66 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.6 #20 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.7% #102 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.7% #20 |
| +2.5% #78 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.6% #32 |
| −0.38 #84 | Points per drive | +1.29 #10 |
| +0.74 #77 | Points per drive allowed | −0.03 #26 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 #105 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #29 |
| +0.21 #95 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.01 #42 |
| +2.7% #108 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.4% #35 |
| −1.6% #85 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.1% #75 |
| +1.6% #110 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #72 |
| −0.5% #73 | Havoc created | +0.1% #52 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.014 #88 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.006 #31 |
| −0.048 #132 | Passing explosiveness | −0.036 #126 |
| −0.26 #113 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.03 #33 |
| −0.014 #92 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.033 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #79 | Run rate | 53% #45 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WSU | Season to date | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 18.4 |
| -6.0 | Avg margin | +8.2 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.7 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.6 |
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