Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium · 77° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Marshall–Penn State) | 18–35 | – | 0–45 |
| Spread | Penn State −17.5 | Penn State −23.5 | Penn State −45 |
| Total | 53.5 | 53.5 | 45 |
| Penn State win chance | 86% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Marshall +23.5 Lost
Spread: 6.0 pts better than Vegas for Marshall (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Penn State by 17.52%
Marshall by 14+
11%
Marshall by 1–13
28%
Penn State by 1–13
59%
Penn State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Marshall | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.052 #91 | Offense EPA / play | +0.049 #34 |
| +0.061 #85 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.040 #30 |
| −1.2% #84 | Offense success rate | +3.0% #27 |
| +1.2% #76 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.7% #32 |
| −0.045 #127 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.079 #29 |
| −0.041 #75 | Passing EPA / play | +0.022 #39 |
| +0.023 #62 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.012 #40 |
| +0.110 #105 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.030 #27 |
| −3.2 #83 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.0 #33 |
| +5.7 #113 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.0% #103 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.3% #37 |
| +1.3% #87 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.3% #33 |
| −0.55 #103 | Points per drive | +0.50 #26 |
| +0.50 #96 | Points per drive allowed | −0.40 #26 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.10 #65 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #47 |
| −0.05 #51 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #46 |
| −2.2% #48 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.1% #52 |
| +0.5% #59 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.0% #43 |
| −1.7% #57 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #34 |
| −1.2% #98 | Havoc created | +0.1% #54 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.044 #137 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.030 #28 |
| +0.097 #78 | Passing explosiveness | +0.072 #106 |
| −0.27 #116 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.03 #33 |
| +0.068 #129 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.010 #41 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #18 | Run rate | 56% #55 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Marshall | Season to date | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 22.2 / 35.0 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 16.0 |
| -12.8 | Avg margin | +16.0 |
| -13.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.0 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.4 |
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