Final
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 72° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SDST–Northwestern) | 11–40 | – | 18–34 |
| Spread | Northwestern −29.4 | Northwestern −14 | Northwestern −16 |
| Total | 50.7 | 49.5 | 52 |
| Northwestern win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Northwestern −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Northwestern −14 Won★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 15.4 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 29.40%
South Dakota State by 14+
3%
South Dakota State by 1–13
13%
Northwestern by 1–13
83%
Northwestern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SDST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.186 | Offense EPA / play | −0.015 #69 |
| +0.055 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.000 #44 |
| −6.0% | Offense success rate | +0.5% #54 |
| +4.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #60 |
| −0.098 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.045 #55 |
| −0.221 | Passing EPA / play | −0.024 #63 |
| +0.010 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.026 #66 |
| +0.107 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.006 #46 |
| −8.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.2 #68 |
| +4.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.3 #30 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.0% #63 |
| +3.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #52 |
| −1.15 | Points per drive | +0.01 #59 |
| +0.87 | Points per drive allowed | −0.27 #33 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.47 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #55 |
| −0.02 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.02 #72 |
| +2.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.6% #34 |
| +0.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.5% #87 |
| −5.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #80 |
| −10.0% | Havoc created | +0.4% #39 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.032 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.016 #116 |
| +0.027 | Passing explosiveness | +0.120 #53 |
| −0.60 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #82 |
| −0.204 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.030 #22 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% | Run rate | 57% #49 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SDST | Season to date | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 18.0 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 33.0 / 16.8 |
| -16.0 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.8 |
| 55.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
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