Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 89° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio–Nebraska) | 19–33 | – | 21–49 |
| Spread | Nebraska −13.3 | Nebraska −23.5 | Nebraska −28 |
| Total | 52.3 | 47.5 | 70 |
| Nebraska win chance | 80% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio +23.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 10.2 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nebraska by 13.34%
Ohio by 14+
16%
Ohio by 1–13
32%
Nebraska by 1–13
48%
Nebraska by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.041 #82 | Offense EPA / play | +0.029 #41 |
| +0.067 #90 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.003 #43 |
| −0.6% #74 | Offense success rate | +2.8% #33 |
| +2.5% #96 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.7% #41 |
| +0.047 #53 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.041 #62 |
| −0.107 #110 | Passing EPA / play | +0.027 #35 |
| +0.066 #107 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.029 #69 |
| +0.093 #96 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.024 #33 |
| −3.6 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.7 #35 |
| +1.9 #79 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.0 #40 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.2% #88 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.8% #33 |
| +1.2% #85 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.1% #59 |
| −0.40 #88 | Points per drive | +0.50 #25 |
| +0.26 #77 | Points per drive allowed | −0.21 #38 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.20 #36 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #35 |
| +0.12 #105 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.01 #71 |
| −4.5% #9 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #27 |
| −0.8% #95 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #83 |
| −2.8% #23 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #36 |
| −1.0% #91 | Havoc created | −0.0% #59 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.035 #19 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.024 #125 |
| +0.108 #64 | Passing explosiveness | +0.037 #124 |
| −0.20 #93 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.06 #45 |
| +0.021 #96 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.018 #30 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 66% #7 | Run rate | 55% #76 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio | Season to date | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 26.8 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 14.2 |
| +0.0 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 61.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Ohio: last games
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Nebraska: last games
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