Final
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium · 82° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EIU–Minnesota) | 4–47 | – | 7–59 |
| Spread | Minnesota −43.3 | Minnesota −42.5 | Minnesota −52 |
| Total | 50.8 | 52.5 | 66 |
| Minnesota win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Minnesota −43.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Minnesota −42.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Lost
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Minnesota by 43.30%
Eastern Illinois by 14+
0%
Eastern Illinois by 1–13
3%
Minnesota by 1–13
97%
Minnesota by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.267 | Offense EPA / play | +0.006 #48 |
| +0.255 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.027 #54 |
| −12.9% | Offense success rate | −1.0% #64 |
| +12.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.0% #51 |
| −0.188 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.048 #80 |
| −0.357 | Passing EPA / play | +0.037 #37 |
| +0.096 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.037 #61 |
| +0.320 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.012 #34 |
| −20.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.0 #59 |
| +15.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #39 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.7% #42 |
| +10.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #52 |
| −2.33 | Points per drive | +0.39 #36 |
| +2.60 | Points per drive allowed | +0.29 #47 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.79 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #97 |
| +0.30 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.01 #48 |
| +9.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.2% #95 |
| −1.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.2% #45 |
| +2.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #54 |
| −6.5% | Havoc created | +1.1% #28 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.017 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.013 #85 |
| +0.102 | Passing explosiveness | −0.022 #108 |
| −0.29 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.09 #67 |
| −0.068 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.062 #20 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 46% #131 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EIU | Season to date | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 7.0 / 59.0 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 18.0 |
| -52.0 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| -9.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 48.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Eastern Illinois: last games
No games yet.
Minnesota: last games
No games yet.