Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium · 62° · wind 16 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Virginia Tech–California) | 30–27 | 33–23 | – |
| Spread | Virginia Tech −3.7 | Virginia Tech −10.8 | Virginia Tech −10 |
| Total | 56.8 | 56.0 | 53.5 |
| California win chance | 41% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia Tech −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ California +10 ★ Over 53.5
Spread: 6.3 pts better than Vegas for California (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Virginia Tech −10 ☆ Over 53.5
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Virginia Tech. Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia Tech by 3.726%
Virginia Tech by 14+
33%
Virginia Tech by 1–13
27%
California by 1–13
14%
California by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Virginia Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | California |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.089 #26 | Offense EPA / play | −0.108 #107 |
| +0.080 #79 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.085 #81 |
| +3.7% #27 | Offense success rate | −4.7% #99 |
| +1.0% #59 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.2% #46 |
| +0.013 #55 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.199 #129 |
| +0.145 #23 | Passing EPA / play | −0.028 #72 |
| +0.032 #59 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.162 #122 |
| +0.114 #91 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.015 #43 |
| +5.1 #30 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #84 |
| +3.6 #83 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.6 #95 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.3% #15 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.6% #92 |
| −3.5% #20 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.2% #25 |
| +0.96 #20 | Points per drive | −0.71 #96 |
| +0.62 #74 | Points per drive allowed | +0.60 #72 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.23 #92 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #103 |
| −0.52 #8 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.27 #94 |
| +3.9% #111 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.0% #114 |
| +4.2% #15 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.7% #129 |
| −2.2% #26 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #101 |
| +2.7% #19 | Havoc created | −2.3% #105 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.108 #26 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.022 #77 |
| +0.005 #69 | Passing explosiveness | −0.009 #79 |
| +0.02 #52 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.44 #111 |
| −0.103 #39 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.177 #131 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #109 | Run rate | 41% #136 |
| −17.6 #121 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.2 #83 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Virginia Tech | Season to date | California |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 41.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.6 |
| +21.4 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.2 |
| 65.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.6 |
Virginia Tech: last 5 games
| L33-35 | |
| W21-14 | |
| W35-26 | |
| W44-21 | |
| W73-3 |
