Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 58° · wind 18 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Virginia Tech–Boston College) | 32–18 | – | 21–14 |
| Spread | Virginia Tech −14.0 | Virginia Tech −14.5 | Virginia Tech −7 |
| Total | 50.2 | 45.5 | 35 |
| Boston College win chance | 19% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia Tech −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boston College +14.5 Won★ Over 45.5 Lost
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Boston College (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.7 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia Tech by 14.050%
Virginia Tech by 14+
31%
Virginia Tech by 1–13
15%
Boston College by 1–13
4%
Boston College by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Virginia Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.173 #11 | Offense EPA / play | −0.191 #134 |
| +0.054 #83 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.078 #92 |
| +6.0% #15 | Offense success rate | −5.1% #118 |
| +1.7% #79 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.7% #68 |
| +0.190 #12 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.136 #128 |
| +0.154 #22 | Passing EPA / play | −0.159 #111 |
| −0.006 #57 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.072 #98 |
| +0.131 #100 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.175 #111 |
| +8.7 #13 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.8 #123 |
| +2.0 #82 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.3 #96 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.9% #7 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.1% #103 |
| −0.0% #68 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.4% #131 |
| +1.84 #9 | Points per drive | −1.28 #128 |
| +0.45 #94 | Points per drive allowed | +0.37 #88 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #64 | Line yards per rush | −0.23 #125 |
| −0.76 #4 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #107 |
| +0.6% #108 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.1% #126 |
| +6.1% #8 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.3% #103 |
| −4.2% #17 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #103 |
| +3.2% #7 | Havoc created | −1.1% #80 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.136 #20 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.054 #99 |
| +0.058 #88 | Passing explosiveness | +0.165 #46 |
| −0.06 #56 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #99 |
| −0.079 #33 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.023 #75 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #114 | Run rate | 54% #83 |
| −20.2 #127 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.9 #105 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Virginia Tech | Season to date | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 0-5 |
| 41.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 23.4 |
| +21.4 | Avg margin | -4.4 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 65.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
Virginia Tech: last 3 games
| W35-26 | |
| W44-21 | |
| W73-3 |
Boston College: last 3 games
| W22-16 | |
| W28-21 | |
| L15-34 |
