Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium · 90° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Mercer–Georgia Tech) | 11–47 | – | 11–44 |
| Spread | Georgia Tech −35.8 | Georgia Tech −38.5 | Georgia Tech −33 |
| Total | 58.4 | 58.5 | 55 |
| Georgia Tech win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Mercer +38.5 Won★ Under 58.5 Won
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Mercer (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia Tech by 35.80%
Mercer by 14+
1%
Mercer by 1–13
8%
Georgia Tech by 1–13
91%
Georgia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Mercer | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.168 | Offense EPA / play | −0.008 #67 |
| +0.210 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.001 #53 |
| −11.2% | Offense success rate | +3.7% #31 |
| +4.1% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.4% #53 |
| −0.137 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.041 #58 |
| −0.141 | Passing EPA / play | −0.035 #68 |
| +0.177 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.062 #89 |
| +0.195 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.051 #32 |
| −11.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.5 #85 |
| +10.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #57 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.4% #41 |
| +7.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −0.9% #50 |
| −1.71 | Points per drive | −0.64 #98 |
| +1.67 | Points per drive allowed | −0.39 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.32 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #37 |
| +0.48 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #86 |
| +3.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #74 |
| −4.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #107 |
| +0.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #96 |
| −4.1% | Havoc created | −1.3% #87 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.202 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.166 #130 |
| +0.326 | Passing explosiveness | −0.022 #111 |
| −0.33 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.39 #105 |
| +0.131 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.075 #95 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 55% #73 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +8.0 #3 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Mercer | Season to date | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-4 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 11.0 / 44.0 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.0 |
| -33.0 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +5.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.9 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
