Final
Sat, Sep 19, 2:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 61° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Maine–Boston College) | 6–47 | – | 16–22 |
| Spread | Boston College −40.8 | Boston College −37.5 | Boston College −6 |
| Total | 52.4 | 54.5 | 38 |
| Boston College win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Boston College −38.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boston College −37.5 Lost★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Boston College (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Boston College by 40.80%
Maine by 14+
1%
Maine by 1–13
4%
Boston College by 1–13
95%
Boston College by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Maine | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.453 | Offense EPA / play | −0.126 #122 |
| +0.243 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.012 #61 |
| −17.8% | Offense success rate | −4.1% #114 |
| +11.6% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.5% #45 |
| −0.361 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.033 #101 |
| −0.373 | Passing EPA / play | −0.124 #105 |
| +0.267 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #83 |
| +0.130 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.079 #81 |
| −21.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #92 |
| +16.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.1 #79 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.7% #84 |
| +6.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +4.7% #120 |
| −2.63 | Points per drive | −0.69 #100 |
| +2.38 | Points per drive allowed | −0.13 #55 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.04 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #89 |
| +0.92 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #92 |
| +13.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #88 |
| −7.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #82 |
| +4.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #120 |
| −3.1% | Havoc created | −1.7% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.130 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.005 #78 |
| +0.137 | Passing explosiveness | +0.243 #24 |
| −0.51 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #83 |
| −0.054 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.047 #87 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 53% #97 |
| −2.3 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.2 #29 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Maine | Season to date | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 0-5 |
| 9.5 / 38.5 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 23.4 |
| -29.0 | Avg margin | -4.4 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
Maine: last 1 games
| L3-55 |
Boston College: last 2 games
| W28-21 | |
| L15-34 |
