Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium · 81° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wake Forest–Purdue) | 28–26 | – | 38–36 |
| Spread | Wake Forest −2.0 | Wake Forest −2.5 | Wake Forest −2 |
| Total | 53.7 | 51.5 | 74 |
| Purdue win chance | 45% | – | – |
Line moved from Wake Forest −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Purdue +2.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Purdue (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wake Forest by 2.023%
Wake Forest by 14+
32%
Wake Forest by 1–13
29%
Purdue by 1–13
16%
Purdue by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wake Forest | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.059 #34 | Offense EPA / play | −0.022 #63 |
| −0.033 #26 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.088 #89 |
| −2.8% #88 | Offense success rate | −1.7% #72 |
| +0.7% #53 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.9% #64 |
| +0.039 #37 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.021 #70 |
| +0.068 #34 | Passing EPA / play | +0.044 #42 |
| −0.042 #28 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.110 #109 |
| −0.006 #51 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.038 #72 |
| −0.0 #54 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #73 |
| −0.5 #46 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.4 #94 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.4% #62 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.9% #80 |
| +2.0% #72 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #61 |
| −0.28 #70 | Points per drive | −0.18 #61 |
| +0.23 #45 | Points per drive allowed | +1.07 #99 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 #47 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #44 |
| −0.13 #30 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.15 #79 |
| −0.6% #45 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.1% #12 |
| +3.6% #12 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #37 |
| −0.5% #50 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #38 |
| −0.5% #72 | Havoc created | +1.0% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.020 #77 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.074 #104 |
| +0.313 #2 | Passing explosiveness | +0.025 #59 |
| +0.28 #23 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #100 |
| −0.224 #7 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.178 #133 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #98 | Run rate | 50% #92 |
| −16.8 #83 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −35.5 #117 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wake Forest | Season to date | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 36.6 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 35.0 |
| +13.6 | Avg margin | -4.6 |
| +11.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.4 |
Wake Forest: last 1 games
| W38-16 |
Purdue: last 1 games
| W44-19 |
