Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium · 78° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Old Dominion–Virginia Tech) | 18–33 | – | 21–44 |
| Spread | Virginia Tech −15.8 | Virginia Tech −17.5 | Virginia Tech −23 |
| Total | 51.0 | 47.5 | 65 |
| Virginia Tech win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia Tech −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Old Dominion +17.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Old Dominion (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia Tech by 15.83%
Old Dominion by 14+
13%
Old Dominion by 1–13
29%
Virginia Tech by 1–13
55%
Virginia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Old Dominion | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.130 #122 | Offense EPA / play | +0.075 #32 |
| −0.017 #48 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.030 #38 |
| −3.3% #112 | Offense success rate | +5.2% #15 |
| +0.4% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #41 |
| −0.031 #100 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.237 #1 |
| −0.165 #116 | Passing EPA / play | −0.033 #72 |
| −0.028 #40 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.020 #47 |
| −0.008 #50 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.046 #77 |
| −6.8 #112 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.3 #25 |
| +0.7 #68 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #77 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.2% #45 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #74 |
| −0.5% #60 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #64 |
| −1.11 #129 | Points per drive | +1.60 #14 |
| +0.05 #61 | Points per drive allowed | +0.30 #82 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.09 #109 | Line yards per rush | +0.35 #23 |
| +0.08 #90 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.24 #29 |
| +0.6% #107 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.3% #48 |
| −0.5% #81 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.9% #20 |
| −0.6% #97 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #42 |
| +1.1% #32 | Havoc created | +2.5% #12 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.036 #56 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.127 #18 |
| +0.271 #17 | Passing explosiveness | −0.027 #123 |
| −0.10 #54 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.47 #11 |
| −0.180 #8 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.084 #33 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 66% #6 | Run rate | 54% #81 |
| −29.2 #108 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −48.4 #135 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Old Dominion | Season to date | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 0-5 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 19.8 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 19.8 |
| -12.6 | Avg margin | +21.4 |
| -16.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 51.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
Old Dominion: last 1 games
| W31-10 |
Virginia Tech: last 1 games
| W73-3 |
