Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET
Lane Stadium · 77° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (VMI–Virginia Tech) | 3–52 | – | 3–73 |
| Spread | Virginia Tech −49.7 | Virginia Tech −54.5 | Virginia Tech −70 |
| Total | 55.3 | 60.5 | 76 |
| Virginia Tech win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia Tech −50.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ VMI +54.5 Lost★ Under 60.5 Lost
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for VMI (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia Tech by 49.70%
VMI by 14+
0%
VMI by 1–13
1%
Virginia Tech by 1–13
99%
Virginia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| VMI | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.347 | Offense EPA / play | +0.023 #44 |
| +0.414 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.028 #65 |
| −18.6% | Offense success rate | +1.1% #45 |
| +16.2% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.2% #52 |
| −0.330 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.076 #31 |
| −0.431 | Passing EPA / play | −0.001 #48 |
| +0.282 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #51 |
| +0.522 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.029 #55 |
| −27.0 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.3 #58 |
| +25.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.5 #62 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.7% #55 |
| +12.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.1% #55 |
| −3.15 | Points per drive | +0.02 #56 |
| +3.23 | Points per drive allowed | +0.08 #61 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.77 | Line yards per rush | +0.25 #26 |
| +0.76 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #38 |
| +7.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.7% #30 |
| −6.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.0% #45 |
| −1.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #89 |
| −9.0% | Havoc created | +0.2% #51 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.352 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #60 |
| +0.166 | Passing explosiveness | +0.118 #55 |
| −0.95 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.07 #26 |
| +0.192 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.017 #83 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 55% #75 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| VMI | Season to date | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 3.0 / 73.0 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 19.8 |
| -70.0 | Avg margin | +21.4 |
| -15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 40.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
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