Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium · 63° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCLA–California) | 25–27 | – | 45–24 |
| Spread | California −2.2 | UCLA −2.5 | UCLA −21 |
| Total | 51.3 | 53.5 | 69 |
| California win chance | 55% | – | – |
Line moved from California −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ California +2.5 Lost★ Under 53.5 Lost
Spread: 4.7 pts better than Vegas for California (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around California by 2.215%
UCLA by 14+
29%
UCLA by 1–13
33%
California by 1–13
23%
California by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UCLA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | California |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.001 #53 | Offense EPA / play | −0.036 #79 |
| +0.024 #50 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.054 #72 |
| −0.4% #57 | Offense success rate | −2.0% #80 |
| +1.8% #63 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.0% #70 |
| +0.020 #39 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.076 #102 |
| +0.002 #58 | Passing EPA / play | −0.038 #80 |
| +0.035 #57 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.071 #89 |
| +0.001 #45 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.037 #59 |
| −1.0 #67 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #74 |
| +1.1 #56 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.2 #78 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.8% #41 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.1% #69 |
| +1.0% #54 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #64 |
| −0.12 #71 | Points per drive | −0.33 #82 |
| +0.30 #48 | Points per drive allowed | +0.52 #65 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.02 #40 | Line yards per rush | −0.22 #87 |
| +0.02 #49 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.20 #92 |
| +0.3% #50 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.9% #64 |
| +0.1% #48 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.0% #97 |
| −1.4% #24 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.3% #103 |
| −1.3% #89 | Havoc created | −0.4% #69 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.012 #25 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.003 #49 |
| −0.021 #107 | Passing explosiveness | −0.029 #120 |
| +0.12 #24 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.17 #88 |
| +0.014 #127 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.001 #112 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #105 | Run rate | 47% #126 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UCLA | Season to date | California |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 44.8 / 18.8 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.6 |
| +26.0 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| +18.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.2 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.6 |
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