Final
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 87° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Akron–Wake Forest) | 16–34 | – | 16–38 |
| Spread | Wake Forest −17.9 | Wake Forest −27.5 | Wake Forest −22 |
| Total | 49.5 | 50.5 | 54 |
| Wake Forest win chance | 87% | – | – |
Line moved from Wake Forest −22.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Akron +27.5 Won★ Under 50.5 Lost
Spread: 9.6 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wake Forest by 17.92%
Akron by 14+
11%
Akron by 1–13
27%
Wake Forest by 1–13
60%
Wake Forest by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Akron | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.155 #133 | Offense EPA / play | −0.020 #69 |
| +0.124 #112 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.044 #21 |
| −6.7% #130 | Offense success rate | −1.9% #79 |
| +5.6% #115 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.0% #20 |
| −0.142 #133 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.003 #55 |
| −0.141 #129 | Passing EPA / play | −0.018 #67 |
| +0.090 #104 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.036 #22 |
| +0.138 #118 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.032 #27 |
| −9.1 #131 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.1 #58 |
| +9.0 #121 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #37 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.4% #122 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.2% #70 |
| +4.5% #118 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #26 |
| −1.11 #130 | Points per drive | −0.14 #73 |
| +1.39 #117 | Points per drive allowed | +0.16 #38 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.40 #131 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #62 |
| +0.29 #115 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.16 #20 |
| +3.6% #126 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.2% #47 |
| −1.7% #88 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.0% #5 |
| +2.7% #134 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #48 |
| −1.4% #92 | Havoc created | +1.0% #34 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.042 #137 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.003 #36 |
| +0.014 #58 | Passing explosiveness | +0.060 #14 |
| −0.41 #135 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #46 |
| +0.004 #115 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.056 #27 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #107 | Run rate | 52% #66 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Akron | Season to date | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.0 / 33.6 | Points for / against | 36.6 / 23.0 |
| -14.6 | Avg margin | +13.6 |
| -5.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.1 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |
Akron: last games
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Wake Forest: last games
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