Final
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM ET
Stanford Stadium · 73° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Hawai'i–Stanford) | 21–30 | – | 27–37 |
| Spread | Stanford −9.2 | Stanford −4.5 | Stanford −10 |
| Total | 51.3 | 48.5 | 64 |
| Stanford win chance | 72% | – | – |
Line moved from Stanford −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Stanford −4.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 4.7 pts better than Vegas for Stanford (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Stanford by 9.27%
Hawai'i by 14+
21%
Hawai'i by 1–13
34%
Stanford by 1–13
38%
Stanford by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Hawai'i | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.086 #105 | Offense EPA / play | −0.034 #78 |
| +0.120 #110 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.043 #66 |
| −4.2% #109 | Offense success rate | −2.2% #84 |
| +4.7% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.4% #60 |
| −0.154 #135 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.049 #81 |
| −0.065 #92 | Passing EPA / play | −0.022 #73 |
| +0.105 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.007 #35 |
| +0.118 #106 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #68 |
| −3.9 #90 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #77 |
| +5.1 #88 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.0 #70 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.5% #85 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.3% #83 |
| +4.2% #112 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.7% #68 |
| −0.72 #114 | Points per drive | −0.23 #77 |
| +0.95 #90 | Points per drive allowed | +0.52 #64 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.34 #116 | Line yards per rush | −0.21 #85 |
| +0.35 #129 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #56 |
| +3.4% #122 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.2% #75 |
| −3.3% #128 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #58 |
| −1.2% #29 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.3% #104 |
| −2.0% #109 | Havoc created | −0.1% #59 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.037 #133 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.006 #59 |
| +0.022 #49 | Passing explosiveness | +0.004 #74 |
| −0.38 #133 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #85 |
| −0.004 #109 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.026 #71 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 42% #138 | Run rate | 50% #88 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Hawai'i | Season to date | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 17.6 / 24.8 | Points for / against | 17.4 / 38.2 |
| -7.2 | Avg margin | -20.8 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.4 |
| 72.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.6 |
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