Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium · 88° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colorado–Baylor) | 20–32 | – | 13–23 |
| Spread | Baylor −11.9 | Baylor −8.5 | Baylor −10 |
| Total | 51.7 | 54.5 | 36 |
| Baylor win chance | 77% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Baylor −8.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Baylor (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Baylor by 11.95%
Colorado by 14+
18%
Colorado by 1–13
32%
Baylor by 1–13
45%
Baylor by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colorado | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.013 #72 | Offense EPA / play | +0.004 #63 |
| +0.025 #70 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.039 #39 |
| −2.3% #93 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #54 |
| −0.8% #54 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.0% #40 |
| −0.032 #98 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.022 #74 |
| −0.000 #55 | Passing EPA / play | −0.035 #73 |
| −0.143 #10 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.099 #19 |
| +0.221 #126 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #45 |
| −4.9 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #66 |
| +0.7 #71 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.8 #30 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.7% #87 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.3% #36 |
| +6.0% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.8% #45 |
| −0.36 #82 | Points per drive | −0.23 #77 |
| +0.18 #79 | Points per drive allowed | −0.57 #25 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.09 #68 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #55 |
| −0.37 #17 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.09 #48 |
| −2.7% #59 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.8% #41 |
| +8.7% #2 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.5% #37 |
| −0.5% #91 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #87 |
| +1.5% #25 | Havoc created | +0.9% #40 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.032 #59 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.030 #86 |
| +0.334 #14 | Passing explosiveness | +0.162 #47 |
| −0.13 #64 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.62 #128 |
| +0.270 #135 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.203 #8 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #73 | Run rate | 49% #123 |
| −9.5 #60 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.8 #61 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colorado | Season to date | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 18.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 14.2 |
| -6.8 | Avg margin | +20.6 |
| -8.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.3 |
| 68.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
Colorado: last 3 games
| L7-41 | |
| W52-21 | |
| W14-13 |
Baylor: last 3 games
| W36-19 | |
| W44-3 | |
| L16-17 |
