Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 69° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colorado–Northwestern) | 20–28 | – | 7–41 |
| Spread | Northwestern −8.5 | Northwestern −3.5 | Northwestern −34 |
| Total | 48.1 | 47.5 | 48 |
| Northwestern win chance | 70% | – | – |
Line moved from Northwestern −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Northwestern −3.5 Won★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 5.0 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 8.58%
Colorado by 14+
22%
Colorado by 1–13
34%
Northwestern by 1–13
36%
Northwestern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colorado | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.050 #38 | Offense EPA / play | +0.085 #25 |
| +0.031 #72 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.062 #81 |
| −1.4% #81 | Offense success rate | +1.6% #48 |
| −2.8% #29 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.8% #92 |
| +0.008 #76 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.188 #10 |
| +0.104 #24 | Passing EPA / play | +0.027 #42 |
| −0.091 #23 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.090 #104 |
| +0.138 #102 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #48 |
| −2.4 #72 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.4 #73 |
| −2.0 #48 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.4 #33 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.6% #38 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.9% #73 |
| +1.3% #78 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #66 |
| −0.10 #58 | Points per drive | −0.62 #97 |
| +0.02 #66 | Points per drive allowed | −0.70 #15 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.07 #78 | Line yards per rush | +0.46 #15 |
| −0.24 #34 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.36 #127 |
| −3.2% #49 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.4% #31 |
| +8.7% #2 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.5% #118 |
| −0.6% #92 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #94 |
| +2.5% #17 | Havoc created | +0.8% #41 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.003 #77 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.069 #45 |
| +0.393 #9 | Passing explosiveness | +0.277 #21 |
| −0.35 #96 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.38 #17 |
| +0.337 #138 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.121 #21 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #80 | Run rate | 56% #70 |
| −15.0 #89 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.1 #64 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colorado | Season to date | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 18.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 33.0 / 16.8 |
| -6.8 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -8.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.8 |
| 68.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Colorado: last 2 games
| W52-21 | |
| W14-13 |
Northwestern: last 1 games
| W34-18 |
