Final
Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium · 77° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UT Martin–West Virginia) | 11–44 | – | 7–52 |
| Spread | West Virginia −32.5 | West Virginia −41.5 | West Virginia −45 |
| Total | 55.0 | 57.5 | 59 |
| West Virginia win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from West Virginia −40.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UT Martin +41.5 Lost★ Under 57.5 Lost
Spread: 9.0 pts better than Vegas for UT Martin (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around West Virginia by 32.50%
UT Martin by 14+
2%
UT Martin by 1–13
10%
West Virginia by 1–13
87%
West Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UT Martin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.317 | Offense EPA / play | −0.051 #88 |
| +0.365 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.079 #82 |
| −13.2% | Offense success rate | −3.0% #89 |
| +11.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #77 |
| −0.211 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.089 #102 |
| −0.317 | Passing EPA / play | +0.074 #31 |
| +0.212 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.083 #16 |
| +0.380 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.147 #109 |
| −20.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #79 |
| +18.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.2 #86 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.7% #77 |
| +15.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +7.0% #124 |
| −2.96 | Points per drive | −0.63 #95 |
| +2.78 | Points per drive allowed | +0.65 #75 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.77 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #104 |
| +0.34 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.24 #17 |
| +4.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #71 |
| −2.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.6% #14 |
| +6.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #51 |
| −2.7% | Havoc created | +3.4% #9 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.001 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.088 #113 |
| −0.030 | Passing explosiveness | +0.179 #12 |
| −0.66 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #65 |
| +0.112 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.065 #107 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 62% #6 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.1 #74 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UT Martin | Season to date | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 14.0 / 48.5 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 28.8 |
| -34.5 | Avg margin | +8.6 |
| +3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.2 |
UT Martin: last games
No games yet.
West Virginia: last 1 games
| W31-24 |
