Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Folsom Field · 74° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Weber State–Colorado) | 10–52 | – | 21–52 |
| Spread | Colorado −41.8 | Colorado −38.5 | Colorado −31 |
| Total | 61.9 | 57.5 | 73 |
| Colorado win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Colorado −33.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colorado −38.5 Lost★ Over 57.5 Won
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Colorado (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Colorado by 41.80%
Weber State by 14+
1%
Weber State by 1–13
4%
Colorado by 1–13
95%
Colorado by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Weber State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.275 | Offense EPA / play | −0.002 #58 |
| +0.252 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.022 #44 |
| −9.6% | Offense success rate | −1.2% #81 |
| +8.6% | Defense success rate allowed | −2.9% #23 |
| −0.177 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.039 #60 |
| −0.274 | Passing EPA / play | −0.025 #68 |
| +0.356 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.098 #16 |
| +0.046 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.058 #79 |
| −6.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.4 #74 |
| +18.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.7 #23 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.3% #43 |
| +6.2% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.5% #43 |
| −1.62 | Points per drive | −0.27 #70 |
| +1.72 | Points per drive allowed | −0.48 #26 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.56 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #75 |
| +0.59 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.36 #13 |
| +4.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.8% #40 |
| −3.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | +7.8% #3 |
| +4.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #80 |
| −2.8% | Havoc created | +2.0% #17 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.026 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.016 #64 |
| +0.143 | Passing explosiveness | +0.277 #16 |
| −0.26 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #91 |
| −0.123 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.146 #122 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 56% #55 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.2 #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Weber State | Season to date | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 21.0 / 52.0 | Points for / against | 18.6 / 25.4 |
| -31.0 | Avg margin | -6.8 |
| +7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.1 |
| 63.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 68.2 |
Weber State: last games
No games yet.
Colorado: last 1 games
| W14-13 |
