Final
Sat, Sep 12, 8:08 PM ET
McLane Stadium · 88° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (PV–Baylor) | 14–50 | – | 3–44 |
| Spread | Baylor −35.9 | Baylor −37.5 | Baylor −41 |
| Total | 63.3 | 55.5 | 47 |
| Baylor win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ PV +37.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Prairie View A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.8 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Baylor by 35.90%
Prairie View A&M by 14+
1%
Prairie View A&M by 1–13
8%
Baylor by 1–13
91%
Baylor by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| PV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.139 | Offense EPA / play | +0.004 #55 |
| +0.203 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.037 #35 |
| −11.3% | Offense success rate | +2.1% #45 |
| +10.3% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.8% #49 |
| −0.005 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.034 #102 |
| −0.194 | Passing EPA / play | +0.009 #54 |
| +0.242 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.054 #30 |
| +0.093 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.045 #30 |
| −9.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #47 |
| +13.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.1 #46 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.8% #19 |
| +10.7% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.8% #39 |
| −1.73 | Points per drive | −0.20 #65 |
| +1.81 | Points per drive allowed | −0.46 #29 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.53 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #87 |
| +0.35 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #50 |
| +4.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #57 |
| −4.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.6% #55 |
| +2.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #82 |
| −2.7% | Havoc created | +1.5% #26 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.232 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.097 #118 |
| +0.329 | Passing explosiveness | +0.175 #36 |
| −0.14 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #111 |
| −0.231 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.028 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 49% #126 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.3 #23 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| PV | Season to date | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 3.0 / 44.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 14.2 |
| -41.0 | Avg margin | +20.6 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.3 |
| 57.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
Prairie View A&M: last games
No games yet.
Baylor: last 1 games
| L16-17 |
