Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 76° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WSU–Kansas State) | 18–31 | – | 7–34 |
| Spread | Kansas State −13.3 | Kansas State −17.5 | Kansas State −27 |
| Total | 49.3 | 48.5 | 41 |
| Kansas State win chance | 80% | – | – |
Line moved from Kansas State −16.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WSU +17.5 Lost★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Washington State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kansas State by 13.34%
Washington State by 14+
16%
Washington State by 1–13
32%
Kansas State by 1–13
48%
Kansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.087 #108 | Offense EPA / play | +0.022 #48 |
| −0.011 #41 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.015 #39 |
| −2.7% #82 | Offense success rate | −0.2% #57 |
| +2.1% #66 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.1% #46 |
| −0.045 #83 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.030 #77 |
| −0.181 #126 | Passing EPA / play | +0.071 #32 |
| −0.003 #46 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.073 #89 |
| +0.017 #64 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.042 #34 |
| −5.0 #97 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +7.6 #19 |
| −1.8 #35 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.2 #58 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.4% #130 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.3% #61 |
| −2.3% #27 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.4% #75 |
| −0.58 #89 | Points per drive | +1.68 #13 |
| −0.06 #31 | Points per drive allowed | +0.46 #57 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #87 | Line yards per rush | −0.10 #70 |
| +0.06 #59 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #38 |
| +4.7% #122 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #105 |
| +1.1% #36 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.8% #28 |
| +4.5% #137 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #80 |
| −2.3% #107 | Havoc created | +2.0% #22 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.095 #21 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.055 #36 |
| −0.206 #136 | Passing explosiveness | +0.102 #28 |
| −0.26 #93 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #34 |
| −0.106 #38 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.143 #21 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #69 | Run rate | 53% #59 |
| +8.5 #18 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −36.8 #121 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WSU | Season to date | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 19.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 40.5 / 15.2 |
| -6.0 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.5 |
Washington State: last 1 games
| L10-24 |
Kansas State: last 1 games
| W71-3 |
