Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium · 77° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CCU–West Virginia) | 19–33 | – | 24–31 |
| Spread | West Virginia −14.8 | West Virginia −21 | West Virginia −7 |
| Total | 52.0 | 54.5 | 55 |
| West Virginia win chance | 82% | – | – |
Line moved from West Virginia −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CCU +21 Won★ Under 54.5 Lost
Spread: 6.2 pts better than Vegas for Coastal Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around West Virginia by 14.84%
Coastal Carolina by 14+
14%
Coastal Carolina by 1–13
30%
West Virginia by 1–13
52%
West Virginia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.093 #114 | Offense EPA / play | −0.025 #71 |
| +0.109 #102 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.025 #53 |
| −5.2% #118 | Offense success rate | −2.0% #81 |
| +4.9% #107 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.6% #44 |
| −0.091 #111 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.052 #84 |
| −0.098 #112 | Passing EPA / play | −0.003 #59 |
| +0.097 #110 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.029 #26 |
| +0.114 #105 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.046 #64 |
| −5.7 #104 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.2 #69 |
| +9.2 #122 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.0 #77 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.9% #116 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.9% #67 |
| +4.5% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.7% #70 |
| −0.67 #108 | Points per drive | −0.07 #60 |
| +1.39 #120 | Points per drive allowed | +0.74 #78 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.34 #117 | Line yards per rush | −0.19 #81 |
| +0.25 #100 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.15 #21 |
| +2.8% #109 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.6% #84 |
| −2.0% #95 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.2% #24 |
| +2.1% #119 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #78 |
| −0.8% #81 | Havoc created | +1.9% #18 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.011 #74 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.012 #78 |
| +0.026 #44 | Passing explosiveness | +0.059 #15 |
| −0.19 #95 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.16 #86 |
| −0.021 #77 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.013 #95 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #63 | Run rate | 56% #25 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CCU | Season to date | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 24.8 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 28.8 |
| -0.2 | Avg margin | +8.6 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.2 |
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