Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Nippert Stadium · 90° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Boston College–Cincinnati) | 24–33 | – | 15–34 |
| Spread | Cincinnati −8.5 | Cincinnati −7 | Cincinnati −19 |
| Total | 57.4 | 51.5 | 49 |
| Cincinnati win chance | 70% | – | – |
Line moved from Cincinnati −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Cincinnati −7 Won★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Cincinnati (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.9 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Cincinnati by 8.58%
Boston College by 14+
22%
Boston College by 1–13
33%
Cincinnati by 1–13
37%
Cincinnati by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Boston College | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.002 #61 | Offense EPA / play | +0.057 #28 |
| +0.056 #80 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.046 #78 |
| +0.6% #53 | Offense success rate | +2.6% #37 |
| +0.4% #62 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.0% #72 |
| +0.023 #71 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.080 #28 |
| −0.014 #59 | Passing EPA / play | +0.030 #31 |
| +0.027 #68 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.033 #75 |
| +0.081 #83 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.048 #63 |
| −1.2 #67 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.1 #47 |
| +3.3 #86 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #52 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.3% #66 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.7% #57 |
| +1.0% #75 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.6% #69 |
| −0.11 #70 | Points per drive | +0.29 #40 |
| +0.42 #89 | Points per drive allowed | +0.03 #54 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #87 | Line yards per rush | +0.32 #10 |
| −0.03 #60 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #89 |
| −2.2% #50 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.2% #24 |
| +0.5% #58 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #106 |
| −1.3% #69 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.5% #14 |
| −1.7% #115 | Havoc created | −0.9% #87 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.014 #66 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.032 #21 |
| +0.095 #81 | Passing explosiveness | +0.151 #31 |
| −0.09 #59 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.02 #40 |
| +0.053 #127 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.022 #27 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #114 | Run rate | 55% #69 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Boston College | Season to date | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-5 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 23.2 |
| -4.4 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.6 |
| 65.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
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