Final
Sat, Sep 5, 9:30 PM ET
Arizona Stadium · 93° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NAU–Arizona) | 11–49 | – | 7–35 |
| Spread | Arizona −37.3 | Arizona −33.5 | Arizona −28 |
| Total | 60.1 | 59.5 | 42 |
| Arizona win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Arizona −31.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arizona −33.5 Lost★ Over 59.5 Lost
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for Arizona (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona by 37.30%
Northern Arizona by 14+
1%
Northern Arizona by 1–13
7%
Arizona by 1–13
92%
Arizona by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NAU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.190 | Offense EPA / play | +0.033 #41 |
| +0.277 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.022 #32 |
| −8.5% | Offense success rate | +0.5% #46 |
| +10.6% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.3% #34 |
| −0.208 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.024 #38 |
| −0.165 | Passing EPA / play | +0.018 #45 |
| +0.285 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.007 #45 |
| +0.274 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #38 |
| −10.0 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.1 #36 |
| +15.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #29 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.2% #50 |
| +10.2% | Passing-down success allowed | −0.3% #37 |
| −1.59 | Points per drive | +0.29 #39 |
| +2.37 | Points per drive allowed | +0.09 #33 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.74 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #36 |
| +0.77 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #40 |
| +6.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #46 |
| −5.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #64 |
| −1.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #30 |
| −5.5% | Havoc created | +2.6% #13 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.036 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.008 #68 |
| +0.034 | Passing explosiveness | +0.002 #80 |
| −0.61 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.02 #47 |
| −0.006 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.015 #90 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 48% #118 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NAU | Season to date | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 7.0 / 35.0 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 16.6 |
| -28.0 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| +5.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
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