Final
Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium · 79° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Idaho–Utah) | 8–54 | – | 14–66 |
| Spread | Utah −46.2 | Utah −38.5 | Utah −52 |
| Total | 61.4 | 60.5 | 80 |
| Utah win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Utah −32.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah −38.5 Won★ Over 60.5 Won
Spread: 7.7 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah by 46.20%
Idaho by 14+
0%
Idaho by 1–13
2%
Utah by 1–13
98%
Utah by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Idaho | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.092 | Offense EPA / play | +0.126 #14 |
| +0.313 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.031 #28 |
| −8.3% | Offense success rate | +4.4% #17 |
| +14.1% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.2% #27 |
| −0.151 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.108 #8 |
| −0.016 | Passing EPA / play | +0.087 #19 |
| +0.228 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.031 #55 |
| +0.372 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.057 #22 |
| −12.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.1 #12 |
| +15.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.1 #23 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.5% #11 |
| +11.7% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.3% #24 |
| −1.50 | Points per drive | +1.38 #7 |
| +2.70 | Points per drive allowed | +0.00 #29 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.55 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #8 |
| +0.67 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #35 |
| +4.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #8 |
| −6.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.7% #34 |
| −3.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #22 |
| −8.5% | Havoc created | +1.2% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.001 #41 |
| +0.104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.023 #47 |
| −0.77 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.10 #26 |
| −0.058 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.003 #111 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 56% #24 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Idaho | Season to date | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 14.0 / 66.0 | Points for / against | 43.2 / 10.2 |
| -52.0 | Avg margin | +33.0 |
| -13.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.5 |
| 59.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.0 |
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