Final
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium · 78° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BCU–UCF) | 9–47 | – | 6–73 |
| Spread | UCF −37.9 | UCF −43.5 | UCF −67 |
| Total | 55.6 | 58.5 | 79 |
| UCF win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from UCF −41.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BCU +43.5 Lost★ Under 58.5 Lost
Spread: 5.6 pts better than Vegas for Bethune-Cookman (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCF by 37.90%
Bethune-Cookman by 14+
1%
Bethune-Cookman by 1–13
6%
UCF by 1–13
93%
UCF by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| BCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.212 | Offense EPA / play | −0.031 #75 |
| +0.313 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.024 #52 |
| −10.5% | Offense success rate | −1.7% #76 |
| +15.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.5% #75 |
| −0.230 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.014 #63 |
| −0.202 | Passing EPA / play | −0.039 #81 |
| +0.329 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.057 #75 |
| +0.289 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.008 #49 |
| −14.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #73 |
| +20.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #49 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.6% #88 |
| +11.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −0.1% #41 |
| −2.10 | Points per drive | −0.06 #58 |
| +3.17 | Points per drive allowed | +0.47 #59 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.84 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #75 |
| +0.93 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #80 |
| +7.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.8% #111 |
| −7.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.0% #99 |
| −0.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #99 |
| −8.0% | Havoc created | +0.4% #42 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.047 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.009 #27 |
| +0.026 | Passing explosiveness | −0.022 #109 |
| −0.54 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.03 #35 |
| −0.051 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.077 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 49% #113 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| BCU | Season to date | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 6.0 / 73.0 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 17.6 |
| -67.0 | Avg margin | +14.8 |
| -23.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.9 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
Bethune-Cookman: last games
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