Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Neyland Stadium · 71° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas–Tennessee) | 30–25 | – | 20–17 |
| Spread | Texas −4.7 | Texas −5.5 | Texas −3 |
| Total | 54.7 | 54.5 | 37 |
| Tennessee win chance | 39% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tennessee +5.5 Won★ Over 54.5 Lost
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas by 4.728%
Texas by 14+
33%
Texas by 1–13
26%
Tennessee by 1–13
12%
Tennessee by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.099 #22 | Offense EPA / play | +0.157 #14 |
| −0.131 #6 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.096 #9 |
| +5.4% #13 | Offense success rate | +4.7% #19 |
| −7.0% #6 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.8% #31 |
| +0.042 #38 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.220 #3 |
| +0.126 #30 | Passing EPA / play | +0.098 #33 |
| −0.162 #4 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.053 #73 |
| −0.121 #19 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.251 #2 |
| +9.1 #14 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +14.0 #4 |
| −12.9 #2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.1 #46 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.7% #17 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.6% #22 |
| −1.0% #43 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #38 |
| +1.49 #14 | Points per drive | +1.89 #8 |
| −1.23 #1 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #61 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.02 #55 | Line yards per rush | +0.49 #3 |
| −0.34 #14 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.32 #107 |
| +2.0% #92 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.0% #13 |
| +3.5% #18 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #58 |
| −0.0% #65 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #40 |
| +4.0% #5 | Havoc created | +3.4% #9 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.124 #114 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.207 #6 |
| +0.063 #46 | Passing explosiveness | +0.029 #64 |
| +0.01 #49 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.33 #17 |
| −0.085 #45 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.302 #3 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #63 | Run rate | 56% #26 |
| +5.3 #5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.6 #100 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas | Season to date | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 33.2 / 13.2 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 15.2 |
| +20.0 | Avg margin | +21.6 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.0 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Texas: last 3 games
| W30-6 | |
| W24-23 | |
| W59-7 |
Tennessee: last 3 games
| W42-9 | |
| W45-24 | |
| W56-9 |
