Final
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 90° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTSA–Texas) | 16–42 | – | 6–30 |
| Spread | Texas −25.4 | Texas −29.5 | Texas −24 |
| Total | 57.8 | 58.5 | 36 |
| Texas win chance | 94% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTSA +29.5 Won★ Under 58.5 Won
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas by 25.41%
UTSA by 14+
5%
UTSA by 1–13
18%
Texas by 1–13
76%
Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTSA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.014 #55 | Offense EPA / play | +0.143 #13 |
| +0.010 #47 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.102 #9 |
| +2.5% #33 | Offense success rate | +6.7% #11 |
| +3.6% #81 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.9% #11 |
| +0.069 #27 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.048 #35 |
| −0.069 #91 | Passing EPA / play | +0.222 #10 |
| +0.097 #97 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.151 #8 |
| −0.019 #43 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.068 #27 |
| +1.0 #49 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.5 #9 |
| +3.6 #84 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.4 #3 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.7% #121 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.9% #11 |
| +3.3% #85 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #61 |
| −0.11 #59 | Points per drive | +1.92 #9 |
| +0.69 #78 | Points per drive allowed | −1.12 #3 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.06 #59 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #46 |
| +0.39 #114 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.21 #20 |
| −0.5% #53 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.5% #98 |
| −4.4% #118 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.3% #20 |
| −1.5% #33 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #72 |
| −2.0% #99 | Havoc created | +2.7% #17 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.011 #73 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.046 #88 |
| −0.205 #131 | Passing explosiveness | +0.101 #36 |
| +0.41 #15 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.07 #43 |
| −0.203 #14 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.049 #99 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #93 | Run rate | 51% #80 |
| −19.6 #106 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +6.7 #5 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTSA | Season to date | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 31.4 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 13.2 |
| +5.2 | Avg margin | +20.0 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 61.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
UTSA: last 2 games
| W31-26 | |
| W45-16 |
Texas: last 2 games
| W24-23 | |
| W59-7 |
