Final
Sat, Sep 12, 4:15 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Delaware–Vanderbilt) | 18–38 | – | 26–35 |
| Spread | Vanderbilt −20.4 | Vanderbilt −20.5 | Vanderbilt −9 |
| Total | 55.5 | 54.5 | 61 |
| Vanderbilt win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from Vanderbilt −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Delaware +20.5 Won★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Delaware (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Vanderbilt by 20.42%
Delaware by 14+
9%
Delaware by 1–13
24%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
65%
Vanderbilt by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Delaware | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.044 #81 | Offense EPA / play | +0.107 #19 |
| +0.153 #122 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.050 #71 |
| −4.0% #106 | Offense success rate | +2.4% #36 |
| +4.5% #98 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.6% #61 |
| −0.162 #130 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.068 #25 |
| −0.013 #66 | Passing EPA / play | +0.070 #33 |
| +0.046 #74 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #87 |
| +0.253 #133 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.015 #46 |
| −6.7 #110 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.2 #42 |
| +10.6 #130 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #30 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.5% #98 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.3% #32 |
| +3.7% #93 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.8% #29 |
| −0.98 #116 | Points per drive | +0.37 #39 |
| +1.74 #129 | Points per drive allowed | +0.35 #51 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.76 #137 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #28 |
| +0.14 #77 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #93 |
| +9.1% #136 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.2% #27 |
| −1.3% #70 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.5% #54 |
| +2.1% #116 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.7% #29 |
| −2.6% #111 | Havoc created | −1.3% #89 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.032 #46 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.132 #13 |
| +0.028 #58 | Passing explosiveness | −0.147 #129 |
| −0.72 #137 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #59 |
| +0.025 #89 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.206 #10 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 41% #135 | Run rate | 55% #33 |
| −44.1 #134 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.5 #86 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Delaware | Season to date | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 21.4 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 25.0 |
| -4.2 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.1 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Delaware: last 1 games
| W42-7 |
Vanderbilt: last 1 games
| W28-9 |
