Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium · 78° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tennessee–Georgia Tech) | 31–25 | – | 45–24 |
| Spread | Tennessee −5.6 | Tennessee −12.5 | Tennessee −21 |
| Total | 56.4 | 55.5 | 69 |
| Georgia Tech win chance | 36% | – | – |
Line moved from Tennessee −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia Tech +12.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tennessee by 5.630%
Tennessee by 14+
33%
Tennessee by 1–13
25%
Georgia Tech by 1–13
11%
Georgia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tennessee | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.146 #11 | Offense EPA / play | +0.041 #42 |
| −0.076 #16 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.022 #59 |
| +4.6% #15 | Offense success rate | +2.9% #33 |
| −2.5% #18 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #55 |
| +0.160 #6 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.050 #85 |
| +0.126 #20 | Passing EPA / play | +0.104 #24 |
| −0.013 #38 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.015 #55 |
| −0.176 #4 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #41 |
| +11.3 #9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.3 #62 |
| +0.6 #60 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.0 #29 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.7% #19 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.8% #24 |
| −4.4% #14 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.4% #54 |
| +1.67 #14 | Points per drive | −0.25 #67 |
| +0.50 #60 | Points per drive allowed | −0.03 #36 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.24 #12 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #75 |
| +0.05 #57 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.03 #54 |
| −3.7% #5 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.2% #130 |
| +2.8% #23 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.7% #104 |
| −1.7% #31 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #54 |
| +3.5% #7 | Havoc created | −1.8% #100 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.188 #5 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.133 #124 |
| +0.126 #20 | Passing explosiveness | +0.008 #68 |
| +0.05 #36 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.34 #105 |
| −0.238 #4 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.047 #102 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #24 | Run rate | 53% #61 |
| −34.3 #111 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.3 #29 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tennessee | Season to date | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 0-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 36.8 / 15.2 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.0 |
| +21.6 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.9 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
