Final
Fri, Sep 11, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 77° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Missouri–Kansas) | 29–27 | – | 38–21 |
| Spread | Missouri −2.3 | Missouri −4 | Missouri −17 |
| Total | 56.3 | 51.5 | 59 |
| Kansas win chance | 44% | – | – |
Line moved from Missouri −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kansas +4 Lost★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Kansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Missouri by 2.324%
Missouri by 14+
32%
Missouri by 1–13
29%
Kansas by 1–13
16%
Kansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Missouri | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.023 #48 | Offense EPA / play | +0.089 #26 |
| −0.064 #22 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.054 #78 |
| +2.7% #38 | Offense success rate | +4.7% #19 |
| −6.1% #8 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.2% #33 |
| −0.031 #99 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.081 #43 |
| +0.066 #29 | Passing EPA / play | +0.123 #17 |
| +0.009 #65 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.028 #41 |
| −0.107 #14 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.091 #88 |
| +2.5 #38 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.2 #34 |
| +0.0 #61 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.0 #72 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.4% #16 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.1% #53 |
| −2.9% #29 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.7% #70 |
| +0.61 #33 | Points per drive | +1.13 #19 |
| +0.33 #84 | Points per drive allowed | +0.34 #88 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.19 #53 | Line yards per rush | +0.40 #12 |
| −0.13 #40 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.47 #9 |
| −1.5% #75 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.3% #15 |
| +2.1% #35 | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.0% #5 |
| −2.8% #32 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.9% #29 |
| +0.8% #40 | Havoc created | +1.9% #18 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.134 #128 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.017 #87 |
| +0.106 #71 | Passing explosiveness | +0.223 #25 |
| −0.21 #76 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.17 #70 |
| +0.058 #88 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.134 #120 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #57 | Run rate | 57% #49 |
| −45.1 #134 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −31.4 #112 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Missouri | Season to date | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 37.6 / 20.0 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 17.0 |
| +17.6 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Missouri: last 1 games
| W54-14 |
Kansas: last 1 games
| W51-6 |
