Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Kroger Field · 79° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Alabama–Kentucky) | 35–19 | – | 45–17 |
| Spread | Alabama −16.3 | Alabama −9.5 | Alabama −28 |
| Total | 53.8 | 47.5 | 62 |
| Kentucky win chance | 16% | – | – |
Line moved from Alabama −10.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Alabama −9.5 Won★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 6.8 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 16.356%
Alabama by 14+
29%
Alabama by 1–13
13%
Kentucky by 1–13
3%
Kentucky by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Alabama | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.177 #7 | Offense EPA / play | +0.047 #40 |
| −0.146 #5 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.030 #63 |
| +7.6% #5 | Offense success rate | +3.3% #29 |
| −7.9% #3 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #79 |
| +0.167 #5 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.038 #39 |
| +0.152 #16 | Passing EPA / play | +0.091 #28 |
| −0.149 #6 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.015 #57 |
| −0.159 #6 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.040 #73 |
| +12.4 #4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.4 #52 |
| −10.2 #5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #37 |
| Situational | ||
| +8.4% #7 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.0% #17 |
| −4.7% #13 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.1% #98 |
| +1.74 #10 | Points per drive | −0.17 #60 |
| −0.95 #3 | Points per drive allowed | +0.09 #40 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.26 #8 | Line yards per rush | +0.27 #7 |
| −0.90 #1 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.17 #27 |
| −3.4% #7 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #54 |
| +7.3% #2 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.2% #51 |
| −3.2% #6 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #73 |
| +3.1% #11 | Havoc created | −1.0% #82 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.006 #64 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.050 #93 |
| +0.070 #42 | Passing explosiveness | +0.081 #38 |
| −0.06 #50 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.20 #77 |
| +0.049 #103 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.070 #56 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #81 | Run rate | 51% #83 |
| −2.1 #45 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.4 #96 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Alabama | Season to date | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 49.6 / 20.8 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 26.8 |
| +28.8 | Avg margin | +7.8 |
| +13.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.6 |
Alabama: last 1 games
| W48-10 |
Kentucky: last 1 games
| W45-13 |
