Final
Sat, Sep 12, 5:30 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 83° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Campbell–Florida) | 10–55 | – | 3–52 |
| Spread | Florida −45.3 | Florida −51.5 | Florida −49 |
| Total | 64.7 | 66.5 | 55 |
| Florida win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida −49.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Campbell +51.5 Won★ Under 66.5 Won
Spread: 6.2 pts better than Vegas for Campbell (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida by 45.30%
Campbell by 14+
0%
Campbell by 1–13
3%
Florida by 1–13
97%
Florida by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Campbell | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.284 | Offense EPA / play | +0.120 #14 |
| +0.237 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.042 #32 |
| −7.5% | Offense success rate | +4.9% #17 |
| +11.3% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #48 |
| −0.173 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.190 #7 |
| −0.384 | Passing EPA / play | +0.075 #26 |
| +0.046 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.042 #83 |
| +0.312 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.104 #16 |
| −11.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.6 #16 |
| +14.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.2 #32 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.6% #58 |
| +7.5% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.6% #95 |
| −2.14 | Points per drive | +1.30 #16 |
| +1.94 | Points per drive allowed | −0.37 #36 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.50 | Line yards per rush | +0.26 #41 |
| +0.33 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #99 |
| +6.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #63 |
| −5.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.6% #116 |
| +1.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.4% #38 |
| −3.7% | Havoc created | +0.5% #45 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.196 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.097 #23 |
| −0.138 | Passing explosiveness | +0.112 #67 |
| −0.32 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.50 #9 |
| −0.049 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.070 #40 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 55% #76 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.8 #91 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Campbell | Season to date | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 3.0 / 52.0 | Points for / against | 46.2 / 27.2 |
| -49.0 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| +2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 63.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.8 |
Campbell: last games
No games yet.
Florida: last 1 games
| W66-21 |
