Final
Sat, Sep 12, 10:15 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium · 79° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas–Utah) | 18–40 | – | 10–43 |
| Spread | Utah −21.7 | Utah −13.5 | Utah −33 |
| Total | 57.7 | 55.5 | 53 |
| Utah win chance | 91% | – | – |
Line moved from Utah −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah −13.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 8.2 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah by 21.71%
Arkansas by 14+
8%
Arkansas by 1–13
23%
Utah by 1–13
68%
Utah by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.060 #93 | Offense EPA / play | +0.100 #21 |
| +0.071 #80 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.005 #52 |
| +2.5% #35 | Offense success rate | +2.9% #31 |
| +1.4% #59 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #48 |
| −0.076 #99 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.093 #18 |
| +0.011 #57 | Passing EPA / play | +0.095 #26 |
| +0.081 #93 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.131 #115 |
| +0.002 #54 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.118 #13 |
| −2.7 #77 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.0 #7 |
| +3.9 #83 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.2 #34 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.8% #25 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +11.1% #3 |
| −1.6% #31 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.9% #37 |
| −0.63 #96 | Points per drive | +1.73 #11 |
| +0.72 #81 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #53 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.16 #79 | Line yards per rush | +0.22 #16 |
| +0.03 #52 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.00 #49 |
| +2.1% #87 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #59 |
| −0.2% #52 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.8% #40 |
| −0.3% #61 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #27 |
| +0.1% #57 | Havoc created | +0.0% #60 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.139 #128 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.058 #34 |
| −0.114 #121 | Passing explosiveness | −0.006 #73 |
| −0.35 #107 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.08 #51 |
| −0.148 #18 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.013 #74 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #64 | Run rate | 56% #26 |
| −29.9 #106 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −28.2 #102 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas | Season to date | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 19.8 / 28.4 | Points for / against | 43.2 / 10.2 |
| -8.6 | Avg margin | +33.0 |
| -7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.5 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.0 |
Arkansas: last 1 games
| W31-14 |
Utah: last 1 games
| W66-14 |
