Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium · 83° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Austin Peay–Vanderbilt) | 11–52 | – | 9–28 |
| Spread | Vanderbilt −40.1 | Vanderbilt −29.5 | Vanderbilt −19 |
| Total | 63.0 | 57.5 | 37 |
| Vanderbilt win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Vanderbilt −30.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Vanderbilt −29.5 Lost★ Over 57.5 Lost
Spread: 10.6 pts better than Vegas for Vanderbilt (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 5.5 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Vanderbilt by 40.10%
Austin Peay by 14+
1%
Austin Peay by 1–13
5%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
94%
Vanderbilt by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Austin Peay | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.133 | Offense EPA / play | +0.169 #5 |
| +0.184 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.036 #59 |
| −8.9% | Offense success rate | +6.4% #10 |
| +12.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.2% #41 |
| −0.136 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.112 #7 |
| −0.065 | Passing EPA / play | +0.135 #13 |
| +0.170 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.036 #23 |
| +0.233 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #73 |
| −8.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.5 #15 |
| +11.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #40 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.1% #3 |
| +6.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #44 |
| −1.59 | Points per drive | +1.06 #15 |
| +2.04 | Points per drive allowed | +0.20 #43 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.66 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #15 |
| +0.36 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #23 |
| +6.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #12 |
| −2.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.2% #23 |
| −1.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #25 |
| −7.0% | Havoc created | +0.7% #38 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.128 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.021 #6 |
| +0.217 | Passing explosiveness | +0.031 #38 |
| −0.44 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.17 #16 |
| −0.148 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.029 #65 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 51% #82 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Austin Peay | Season to date | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 9.0 / 28.0 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 25.0 |
| -19.0 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| +10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.1 |
| 48.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Austin Peay: last games
No games yet.
Vanderbilt: last games
No games yet.