Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 95° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas State–Texas) | 16–42 | – | 7–59 |
| Spread | Texas −26.0 | Texas −29.5 | Texas −52 |
| Total | 58.4 | 61.5 | 66 |
| Texas win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas −30.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas State +29.5 Lost★ Under 61.5 Lost
Spread: 3.5 pts better than Vegas for Texas State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas by 26.01%
Texas State by 14+
5%
Texas State by 1–13
17%
Texas by 1–13
77%
Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.033 #40 | Offense EPA / play | +0.133 #13 |
| +0.096 #96 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.124 #7 |
| +0.1% #52 | Offense success rate | +4.0% #18 |
| +3.8% #89 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.4% #10 |
| +0.025 #36 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.113 #6 |
| +0.007 #53 | Passing EPA / play | +0.138 #12 |
| +0.083 #101 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.132 #4 |
| +0.083 #85 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.147 #5 |
| +1.3 #50 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.0 #13 |
| +6.8 #109 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.7 #9 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.6% #45 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.6% #8 |
| +4.0% #109 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.3% #5 |
| +0.03 #50 | Points per drive | +1.19 #12 |
| +1.05 #99 | Points per drive allowed | −0.93 #4 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #58 | Line yards per rush | +0.20 #14 |
| +0.10 #69 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.35 #6 |
| +0.7% #57 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #39 |
| +0.2% #44 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.7% #9 |
| −1.1% #31 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #42 |
| −1.4% #91 | Havoc created | +3.3% #8 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.003 #48 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.024 #5 |
| +0.016 #55 | Passing explosiveness | +0.072 #9 |
| −0.06 #58 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.21 #11 |
| −0.016 #87 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.060 #23 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #23 | Run rate | 49% #109 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas State | Season to date | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 34.8 / 33.2 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 13.2 |
| +1.6 | Avg margin | +20.0 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 67.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
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