Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium · 88° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Furman–Tennessee) | 4–55 | – | 9–56 |
| Spread | Tennessee −50.8 | Tennessee −49.5 | Tennessee −47 |
| Total | 58.7 | 66.5 | 65 |
| Tennessee win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Tennessee −46.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tennessee −49.5 Lost★ Under 66.5 Won
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tennessee by 50.80%
Furman by 14+
0%
Furman by 1–13
1%
Tennessee by 1–13
99%
Tennessee by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Furman | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.250 | Offense EPA / play | +0.167 #7 |
| +0.249 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.059 #18 |
| −11.9% | Offense success rate | +7.7% #4 |
| +11.6% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.8% #22 |
| −0.206 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.148 #2 |
| −0.284 | Passing EPA / play | +0.153 #10 |
| +0.144 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.064 #14 |
| +0.277 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.102 #12 |
| −20.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.3 #4 |
| +13.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.2 #34 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.4% #13 |
| +5.5% | Passing-down success allowed | −3.7% #9 |
| −2.54 | Points per drive | +1.35 #9 |
| +2.48 | Points per drive allowed | −0.14 #22 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.80 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #13 |
| +0.36 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.19 #17 |
| +4.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.3% #2 |
| −1.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.7% #19 |
| −1.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #23 |
| −6.8% | Havoc created | +2.7% #12 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.000 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.019 #8 |
| −0.160 | Passing explosiveness | +0.007 #70 |
| −0.48 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #10 |
| −0.251 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.065 #16 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 53% #55 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Furman | Season to date | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 9.0 / 56.0 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 15.2 |
| -47.0 | Avg margin | +21.6 |
| +2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.0 |
| 63.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Furman: last games
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Tennessee: last games
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