Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:45 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium · 97° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kent State–South Carolina) | 12–42 | – | 0–57 |
| Spread | South Carolina −29.8 | South Carolina −35.5 | South Carolina −57 |
| Total | 54.5 | 52.5 | 57 |
| South Carolina win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from South Carolina −33.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kent State +35.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 5.7 pts better than Vegas for Kent State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Carolina by 29.80%
Kent State by 14+
3%
Kent State by 1–13
13%
South Carolina by 1–13
84%
South Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kent State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.123 #127 | Offense EPA / play | +0.043 #36 |
| +0.161 #132 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.070 #15 |
| −6.6% #128 | Offense success rate | +1.9% #39 |
| +7.2% #132 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.4% #19 |
| −0.148 #134 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.030 #35 |
| −0.078 #99 | Passing EPA / play | +0.069 #28 |
| +0.142 #132 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.092 #9 |
| +0.143 #120 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.078 #18 |
| −7.1 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.2 #34 |
| +11.7 #137 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.1 #15 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.9% #132 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.5% #31 |
| +6.6% #134 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.0% #14 |
| −0.68 #110 | Points per drive | +0.44 #32 |
| +1.80 #136 | Points per drive allowed | −0.58 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.48 #134 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #10 |
| +0.32 #119 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.25 #14 |
| +3.2% #120 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.2% #4 |
| −2.9% #118 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.3% #12 |
| +2.2% #123 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #80 |
| −3.1% #125 | Havoc created | +1.5% #22 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.028 #121 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.003 #50 |
| +0.105 #4 | Passing explosiveness | +0.044 #23 |
| −0.38 #131 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #29 |
| −0.036 #53 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.051 #33 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #38 | Run rate | 53% #50 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kent State | Season to date | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 15.0 / 31.4 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 26.8 |
| -16.4 | Avg margin | +10.8 |
| -0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
Kent State: last games
No games yet.
South Carolina: last games
No games yet.