Final
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 93° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTEP–Oklahoma) | 6–42 | – | 0–51 |
| Spread | Oklahoma −35.7 | Oklahoma −40.5 | Oklahoma −51 |
| Total | 48.0 | 51.5 | 51 |
| Oklahoma win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTEP +40.5 Lost★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma by 35.70%
UTEP by 14+
1%
UTEP by 1–13
7%
Oklahoma by 1–13
92%
Oklahoma by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTEP | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.172 #136 | Offense EPA / play | +0.056 #27 |
| +0.095 #94 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.106 #9 |
| −8.2% #137 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #37 |
| +4.3% #96 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.4% #4 |
| −0.095 #113 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.032 #34 |
| −0.184 #135 | Passing EPA / play | +0.076 #25 |
| +0.051 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.109 #5 |
| +0.122 #108 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.096 #13 |
| −6.9 #120 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.4 #24 |
| +9.5 #125 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.2 #8 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.6% #124 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.9% #26 |
| +2.9% #86 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.4% #11 |
| −1.04 #128 | Points per drive | +0.72 #18 |
| +1.21 #107 | Points per drive allowed | −0.71 #8 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.49 #135 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #41 |
| +0.19 #88 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.43 #2 |
| +3.6% #125 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #58 |
| −1.8% #91 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.6% #2 |
| +2.5% #130 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #84 |
| −2.4% #113 | Havoc created | +5.8% #1 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.022 #104 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.011 #26 |
| +0.050 #19 | Passing explosiveness | +0.003 #78 |
| −0.29 #121 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.00 #40 |
| −0.080 #9 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.065 #17 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #108 | Run rate | 50% #91 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTEP | Season to date | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 16.4 / 41.4 | Points for / against | 22.0 / 16.0 |
| -25.0 | Avg margin | +6.0 |
| -8.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 36.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.2 |
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