Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:00 PM ET
Sanford Stadium · 96° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TNST–Georgia) | 0–57 | – | 3–63 |
| Spread | Georgia −62.7 | Georgia −49.5 | Georgia −60 |
| Total | 51.9 | 55.5 | 66 |
| Georgia win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia −46.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia −49.5 Won★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 13.2 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia by 62.70%
Tennessee State by 14+
0%
Tennessee State by 1–13
0%
Georgia by 1–13
100%
Georgia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| TNST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.373 | Offense EPA / play | +0.181 #4 |
| +0.289 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.135 #5 |
| −16.9% | Offense success rate | +7.6% #5 |
| +13.4% | Defense success rate allowed | −6.4% #5 |
| −0.343 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.140 #3 |
| −0.366 | Passing EPA / play | +0.198 #5 |
| +0.247 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.144 #3 |
| +0.316 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.168 #3 |
| −24.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.6 #10 |
| +18.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −11.0 #3 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.5% #5 |
| +11.6% | Passing-down success allowed | −6.9% #1 |
| −2.82 | Points per drive | +1.37 #8 |
| +2.86 | Points per drive allowed | −1.03 #1 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.29 | Line yards per rush | +0.30 #2 |
| +0.68 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.43 #3 |
| +13.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.2% #24 |
| −4.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.9% #8 |
| −0.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #18 |
| −8.6% | Havoc created | +2.2% #16 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.053 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.031 #3 |
| −0.019 | Passing explosiveness | −0.027 #116 |
| −0.59 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.18 #14 |
| −0.045 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.081 #8 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 55% #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| TNST | Season to date | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 3.0 / 63.0 | Points for / against | 51.4 / 13.4 |
| -60.0 | Avg margin | +38.0 |
| -10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.7 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 42.6 |
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