Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Baylor–Auburn) | 21–31 | – | 16–17 |
| Spread | Auburn −10.3 | Auburn −6.5 | Auburn −1 |
| Total | 51.7 | 58.5 | 33 |
| Auburn win chance | 74% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Auburn −6.5 Lost★ Under 58.5 Won
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for Auburn (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 6.8 pts below Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Auburn by 10.36%
Baylor by 14+
20%
Baylor by 1–13
33%
Auburn by 1–13
41%
Auburn by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Baylor | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.028 #42 | Offense EPA / play | +0.041 #37 |
| +0.021 #60 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.062 #20 |
| +2.5% #38 | Offense success rate | +2.7% #36 |
| +0.7% #69 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #19 |
| +0.054 #44 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.099 #22 |
| −0.004 #50 | Passing EPA / play | +0.016 #41 |
| +0.021 #60 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.070 #17 |
| +0.023 #53 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.029 #28 |
| +2.8 #34 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #42 |
| +2.4 #80 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.9 #20 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.4% #36 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.2% #38 |
| −0.3% #48 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.3% #31 |
| +0.18 #46 | Points per drive | +0.31 #38 |
| +0.08 #60 | Points per drive allowed | −0.49 #24 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.22 #31 | Line yards per rush | +0.24 #27 |
| +0.03 #75 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.31 #11 |
| −3.4% #23 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.6% #35 |
| −1.5% #112 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.5% #8 |
| −2.3% #32 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #75 |
| −1.1% #92 | Havoc created | +0.9% #22 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.011 #110 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.021 #46 |
| +0.082 #95 | Passing explosiveness | +0.002 #134 |
| −0.08 #57 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.09 #23 |
| −0.030 #20 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.001 #52 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #131 | Run rate | 53% #105 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Baylor | Season to date | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 34.8 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 21.4 |
| +20.6 | Avg margin | +5.4 |
| +9.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.7 |
| 69.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.8 |
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