Final
Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM ET
Razorback Stadium · 99° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Alabama–Arkansas) | 10–54 | – | 14–31 |
| Spread | Arkansas −43.8 | Arkansas −40.5 | Arkansas −17 |
| Total | 64.5 | 63.5 | 45 |
| Arkansas win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arkansas −40.5 Lost★ Over 63.5 Lost
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arkansas by 43.80%
North Alabama by 14+
0%
North Alabama by 1–13
3%
Arkansas by 1–13
96%
Arkansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Alabama | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.249 | Offense EPA / play | +0.051 #31 |
| +0.324 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.040 #61 |
| −11.4% | Offense success rate | +2.9% #24 |
| +11.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #55 |
| −0.198 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.063 #23 |
| −0.268 | Passing EPA / play | +0.036 #39 |
| +0.251 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.027 #53 |
| +0.346 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.021 #53 |
| −15.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.5 #41 |
| +22.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.1 #71 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.8% #19 |
| +11.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #49 |
| −2.03 | Points per drive | +0.28 #41 |
| +2.99 | Points per drive allowed | +0.43 #58 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.75 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #26 |
| +0.64 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.01 #46 |
| +5.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.4% #52 |
| −4.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #36 |
| −0.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #76 |
| −9.3% | Havoc created | +0.0% #54 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.052 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.014 #19 |
| +0.036 | Passing explosiveness | +0.031 #37 |
| −0.60 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.26 #5 |
| +0.021 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.012 #98 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 50% #89 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Alabama | Season to date | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 14.0 / 31.0 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 28.4 |
| -17.0 | Avg margin | -8.6 |
| +23.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 62.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
North Alabama: last games
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Arkansas: last games
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