Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium · 91° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (East Carolina–Alabama) | 15–38 | – | 10–48 |
| Spread | Alabama −23.3 | Alabama −28.5 | Alabama −38 |
| Total | 53.0 | 52.5 | 58 |
| Alabama win chance | 93% | – | – |
Line moved from Alabama −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ East Carolina +28.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 23.31%
East Carolina by 14+
6%
East Carolina by 1–13
21%
Alabama by 1–13
72%
Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| East Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.001 #54 | Offense EPA / play | +0.165 #8 |
| +0.022 #47 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.135 #4 |
| +0.6% #44 | Offense success rate | +6.3% #11 |
| +1.1% #53 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.5% #3 |
| −0.029 #69 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.103 #9 |
| +0.031 #42 | Passing EPA / play | +0.201 #4 |
| −0.017 #31 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.099 #8 |
| +0.029 #57 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.171 #2 |
| +0.5 #52 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.3 #6 |
| −0.3 #48 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.5 #5 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.8% #29 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.9% #4 |
| +1.4% #61 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.4% #3 |
| +0.14 #47 | Points per drive | +1.55 #6 |
| +0.56 #67 | Points per drive allowed | −0.93 #5 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.12 #64 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #9 |
| −0.03 #39 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.29 #10 |
| −0.7% #33 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #13 |
| +3.0% #6 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.0% #18 |
| −1.0% #35 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #11 |
| +1.0% #32 | Havoc created | +3.0% #11 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.020 #101 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.017 #11 |
| +0.022 #50 | Passing explosiveness | +0.032 #36 |
| −0.20 #97 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.18 #15 |
| −0.069 #14 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.029 #67 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #35 | Run rate | 48% #117 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| East Carolina | Season to date | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 24.0 / 25.2 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 20.8 |
| -1.2 | Avg margin | +28.8 |
| -4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.9 |
| 49.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
East Carolina: last games
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Alabama: last games
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